Supporting Longer-Term Planning & Foresight

As part of our second strategic outcome, we will focus on horizon scanning and in-depth analysis of key strategic issues, including demographic shifts, advancements in AI and digitalisation, as well as the national and global risks posed by climate change, biodiversity loss, and evolving geopolitical dynamics, over the coming years.

We will actively engage with existing participatory forums, incorporating innovative methodologies to better understand emerging trends and develop possible future scenarios that will inform and guide current decision-making processes.

Our aim is to strengthen the inter-generational perspective within the policy framework, with a dedicated focus on engaging diverse age cohorts to enhance policy development.

By 2028, we aim to have completed comprehensive work in these areas with the following pieces of work which are already under way:

Demography, Migration & Inclusion

Ireland is one of the youngest countries in Europe, but with longer life expectancies, our population is steadily ageing. At the same time, Ireland has shifted from being a country of emigration to a key destination for migrants. Economic growth, foreign direct investment, and rising living standards have made Ireland an attractive place for both international students and skilled workers. Added to this, Ireland has seen an increase in the number of people seeking protection here.

In this evolving landscape, the NESC Demography and Migration Project aims to: 

• Analyse Government Policies – Assess how demographic change and migration are reflected in existing policies and long-term planning. 

• Evaluate Labour Market Practices – Examine the work permit system, conditions for migrant workers, and the future of work and skills in an increasingly globalised economy. 

• Examine Population Projections – Review current models for forecasting population trends, both in Ireland and internationally. 

• Plan for Future Infrastructure & Services – Consider how demographic changes will shape future infrastructure and service needs. 

• Promote Integration & Social Cohesion – Explore existing and potential strategies for fostering inclusion at both local and national levels. 

This project builds on the NESC Council’s previous work on migration, housing, employment, skills, land use, inequality, and wellbeing—ensuring a comprehensive and forward-thinking approach to Ireland’s demographic future.

AI

Ireland’s National Artificial Intelligence (AI) Strategy emphasises the importance of building public trust in AI, leveraging AI to realise economic and societal benefits, and creating enabling conditions to allow AI to improve productivity and drive innovation. This strategy aims to drive the adoption of trustworthy, person-centred AI, while promoting ethical practices and robust data privacy standards.

NESC is engaged in a programme of research on the topic of AI. Key areas of focus include:

• AI adoption in the context of public services in Ireland;
• The impacts of AI adoption in the Irish labour market;
• Ensuring ethical AI development to avoid bias, discrimination and misinformation; and
• Addressing AI transparency to build public trust.

 

AI adoption in the context of public services in Ireland

AI has the potential to improve public service outcomes and to drive efficiency in the public sector. This can be encouraged by wider collaboration and the sharing of expertise between the public, private and academic sectors, as well as new and innovative approaches to public procurement. However, AI adoption in the context of public services must be supported by appropriate ethical frameworks, robust data privacy protections and human rights assessments. This work will propose strategies and advice to safely integrate AI in public services, while proposing measures to enhance public engagement and transparency in AI governance.

• How prevalent is AI adoption in the context of public service delivery in Ireland?
• How can AI improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public service delivery in Ireland?
• What are the risks and opportunities associated with AI adoption in the context of public services and what safeguards are needed?
• What are the emerging regulatory gaps as AI use becomes more prevalent in public service provision?

 

The impacts of AI adoption in the Irish labour market

In July 2024 NESC Ireland published Towards a National Better Work Strategy (Report 165). This report identified AI as a major strategic issue with the potential to transform the Irish labour market. This research found that AI is having a largely positive impact on job quality through the realisation of efficiency gains and the automation of tedious or repetitive forms of work. While AI does present a significant risk of labour market disruption, its effects to date have been largely complementary, with little discernible impact on overall employment levels. However, the time-lag in AI adoption continues to act as a constraint on labour displacement. The report calls for broader social dialogue and further research on the potential economic, social, political and environmental issues raised by AI.

Further research is required to understand emerging issues in AI adoption and workforce adaptation in Ireland considering a range of strategic policy issues:

• How should labour market policies evolve to accommodate ongoing disruption due to AI adoption?
• Which industries are most susceptible to AI disruption, and which offer growth opportunities?
• Which sectors and demographics face the greatest need for reskilling initiatives?
• What measures are necessary to address bias in AI systems that impact workers?
• What are the ethical implications of AI adoption and resulting workforce transformation?

This research will provide actionable advice and insights for policymakers, businesses and workers, assisting in the realisation of more beneficial and equitable outcomes as AI continues to reshape the Irish labour market.

Strategic Foresight

NESC participates in and contributes to a variety of forward-looking exercises across the policy system, in areas of strategic importance to Ireland’s society, economy, and environment.

Currently, this includes engaging with the Department of Finance’s research on the long-term sustainability of policies and how various demographic, technological, and other structural trends may affect Ireland’s economic and fiscal position over a forty-year period (2025-2065). Policy areas assessed under this work include climate change, deglobalisation, demographics, digitalisation, and health.

This area also includes working with the Department of Climate, Energy, and the Environment on the assessment of Ireland’s electricity security of supply out to 2035 in the context of the Government’s Energy Security in Ireland strategy.

NESC is also engaged in SEAI’s futures study to explore pathways to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from the Irish electricity system beyond 2030 and the impacts of doing so.